The price of urea hits, the market performance is mixed

This week, the domestic focus is still on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the fertilizer market has also been affected to a certain extent, and the international inflation is obvious. First, the arrival price of some potassium chloride in Heilongjiang exceeded 5,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the price of sulfur continuously exceeded 100 yuan. The price increase, the high-end self-raised price of some ports has also exceeded 3,000 yuan, the cost of ammonium phosphate factories has increased, and it is not difficult to predict that the price may still be raised in the later period. The price of urea has also been raised in many places in the mainland: at this stage, the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is 2,700 yuan, and the price of urea in Linyi is 2,760 yuan; the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Hebei is 2,710-2,740 yuan; The mainstream ex-factory quotation is 2700-2710 yuan; the mainstream ex-factory quotation of urea in Shanxi is 2620-2660 yuan, and the large particle is 2650-2700 yuan. Although at the beginning of the price increase, most of the factories had obvious test intentions, but at this stage, the price increase of urea urea in many places has been solidified. The main reasons are as follows:

First, there is still market demand. Since the end of last year, some traders believed that the price of urea would drop after the Spring Festival, and suspended the purchase plan. However, after the Spring Festival, the increase of urea in a week exceeded 100 yuan, disrupting the purchase plan of some downstream markets, and the superimposed market was bearish The mood is heavy and I am still on the sidelines. After the end of the Winter Olympics on February 20, the industrial market demand came again. Some hard demands have recently become a state of waiting for rice to be cooked. In addition, the agricultural market demand has started. Under the double superposition , This wave of rising urea prices gradually tends to be solid, and with the gradual increase in trading volume, the market''s fear of not being able to buy goods begins to increase, thus increasing market trading volume.

Second, the chemical fertilizer environment has risen. Recently, the price of potassium chloride is the first to increase, and the increase of sulfur has also increased the cost of ammonium phosphate. The price of compound fertilizer has also been increased in this wave. The price of urea has been adjusted rapidly. The phenomenon of annual abandonment is less, that is to say, the actual amount of fertilizer used in the market still exists, and the recent price of urea also shows signs of being pulled up.

Finally, the initial amount of light storage is not large. According to market rumors, there was a signal released in early March, but according to the conditions of the national commercial short-storage, this time the short-storage should have started to get the goods in September and October last year, but it was in the middle of the whole year at that time. At the highest point, the overall reserve risk is relatively high, and the company still focuses on cashing. In the early stage of the sales of light reserves, the amount put on the market should be small. In addition, the factory inventory is temporarily low, and the overall price of urea is still running at a high level.

To sum up, the price of large particle traders in some regions has reached the level of 3,000 yuan recently, and panic still exists. It is expected that the price of urea will still increase. However, at this stage, the overall market price of urea is obviously too frequent, and the downstream market is buying The strength is limited, and it does not rule out the possibility of strong intervention by relevant departments in the medium and long term.

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