Demand for urea gradually rises or will rise again

In the early stage, the urea speculation has basically been solidified. Compared with the high price of urea after the Spring Festival, the mainstream urea price in Shandong is 2700-2760 yuan, and the price of urea in Linyi is 2760 yuan; the mainstream urea in Hebei The ex-factory quotation is 2710-2790 yuan; the mainstream ex-factory quotation of urea in Henan is 2,720 yuan; the mainstream ex-factory quotation of urea in Shanxi is 2620-2660 yuan, and the large particle is 2650-2700 yuan. During the weekend, the price of urea rose again. The quotations in some mainstream areas pointed to 2,800 yuan. Although the downstream is temporarily on the sidelines, there are still signs of continued rise. The main reasons are as follows:
First of all, the market demand in all aspects is about to start. Due to the relatively low start-up of the compound fertilizer market in the fourth quarter of last year, the overall start-up is gradually increasing at this stage, and the procurement of raw materials has also increased significantly. The recent environmental protection requirements such as board factories are also gradually being released, and the market demand for urea is also gradually increasing. Recently, the weather has warmed up, and the demand in the agricultural market is gradually starting. The volume of goods sold has increased compared with the previous period, and there is still demand being released one after another in the near future. Naturally, the price of urea shows a certain sign of rising.
Second, the rise of mainstream fertilizers. Recently, the prices of phosphate fertilizers, potash fertilizers and even compound fertilizers have been raised to varying degrees. At this stage, some areas of potassium chloride have already rushed to 5,000 yuan, and the ex-factory quotation of 55% powder ammonium has exceeded 3,000 yuan. The recent price of compound fertilizers in Northeast China has also been pushed up. Up about 100 yuan, although the supply of urea market is acceptable, but the overall atmosphere is relatively strong, coupled with the start of market demand, the overall inventory of urea enterprises is temporarily at a relatively low level, and the price of urea may be further increased.
In the end, there has not been a huge increase in supply. The recent market rumors that the light storage has been put on the market has been launched one after another, but it is learned from the market that the overall supply in the market has not increased significantly. Even if the daily physical output of urea is guaranteed to be around 160,000 tons in the near future, most factories can wait for it. There are still orders, and the recent market inquiries and new orders have increased. The market demand remains in the short term, and the overall price remains relatively high. It is not ruled out that the price of urea continues to rise.
With the rigid advancement of grass-roots fertilizers and the industrial procurement of downstream compound fertilizers, the price of urea is still showing signs of continuing to rise recently, but the price of urea has been high at this stage. It will cause slow progress in procurement, inhibit the purchasing power of some downstream markets, and may indirectly affect the security of grain prices. There is the possibility of strong intervention by relevant departments, and prices may drop sharply at that time. Therefore, there are many traders at this stage. Trade is carried out in a back-to-back manner. On the other hand, the export market is still restricted. The domestic urea price is relatively controllable, and the output is relatively large. The risk of a sharp decline in the long term cannot be ruled out.

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